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#楼主# 2022-4-20

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本帖最后由 如风 于 2022-4-20 10:03 编辑

来源: 网易号
自2019年底暴发以来,COVID-19大流行已导致全球近5亿人感染,并导致了超过620万人死亡

最新一轮的疫情暴发是由于omicron(奥密克戎)突变株引起,该突变株于2021年11月11日在南非首次发现。

目前,Omicron已传播至全球绝大多数国家和地区。

Omicron 的快速传播能力引起了全世界的高度关注,

与之前相比,Omicron 的暴发规模要大得多,短短几个月时间,迅速取代 Delta,成为当前主要流行株。

那么,Omicron 导致的 COVID-19 大流行会如何发展,又将在何时结束呢?

近日,兰州大学黄建平院士团队在 Cell 旗下期刊 The Innovation 发表了题为:

Is omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 coming to an end? 的评述文章。




黄建平团队的预测结果表明,Omicron 将在今年继续影响世界,

COVID-19 大流行要到2023年底(2023年11月左右)才会结束。

如下图所示,我们可以观察到当前的大流行呈下降趋势,

每日新增病例已经从1月份的超过400万例减少到现在的约200万例。

蓝色曲线代表 COVID-19 大流行的预测趋势,我们可以看到,总体趋势不断下降,

除了由于季节性因素将在2022年4月出现小幅上升,此后,每日新增确诊病例数将快速下降。

预测结果显示,到2023年11月,全球每天的 COVID-19 病例将降至约3000例。此时,可以认为大流行结束。




根据预测,到2023年11月 COVID-19 大流行结束时,全球确诊病例总数将至少达到7.5亿人。

研究团队也指出,尽管预测结果显示大流行将于2023年11月结束,但这是基于当前大流行发展情况做出的预测。

如果后续出现更容易传播的突变株,那么预测结果也将作出相应调整。

论文链接
2.https ://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00100-3

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